Global IoT connections forecast to reach 40 billion in 2033

Global IoT connections forecast to reach 40 billion in 2033

The latest report from industry analyst firm Transforma Insights presents its annual snapshot of the status of the IoT market worldwide.

Transforma Insights has today published its report ‘Global IoT Forecast Report, 2023-2033’ which provides the industry benchmark of the status of the global Internet of Things market.

The key highlights are:

  • At the end of 2023 there were 16.1 billion active IoT devices, a figure which will grow to 39.9 billion in 2033, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%. Annual device sales will grow from 4.1 billion in 2023 to 8.7 billion (a CAGR of 8%).
  • Short range technologies will dominate connections, accounting for 73% in 2033, a slight reduction compared to the 79% they account for today.
  • Cellular connections will grow from 1.9 billion at end 2023 to 7.5 billion at end 2033. By 2033 total ‘5G’ including mMTC will be 5.5 billion, but just 1.1 billion will be ‘full’ 5G New Radio (NR). The remainder will be mMTC technologies such as NB-IoT and LTE-M. Substantially the biggest 5G non-mMTC use case is vehicle head units, accounting for 41% of connected in 2033.
  • Other Low Power Wide Area technologies such as LoRaWAN will collectively grow from 360 million in 2023 to just over 2 billion in 2033.
  • In revenue terms, the total IoT market (defined as including connectivity modules, value added connectivity, and core associated applications) in 2023 was worth USD335 billion, a figure which will rise to USD934 billion in 2033. Value Added Connectivity will account for 10% of spend in 2033, with the connectivity modules accounting for a further 4%.
  • In 2033 the consumer sector will account for 61% of all connections. Of the enterprise segment in 2033, 35% of devices will be accounted for by ‘cross-vertical’ use cases such as generic track-and-trace, office equipment and fleet vehicles, 24% by utilities, most prominently smart meters, 22% by retail/wholesale (predominantly payment processing devices and electronic shelf labels), 7% by government, 4% by transport and logistics, and 3% for agriculture.
  • Geographically, China, North America, and Europe dominate, accounting for 32%, 21% and 19% respectively of the total value of the IoT market in 2033.

graphic: global iot connections forecast 2023-2033

Commenting on the findings, Principal Analyst Matt Arnott said: “The growth in adoption IoT continues at a steady pace, reflecting the diversity of use cases encapsulated within the concept. It’s not a hockey stick and never has been, but a series of micro-markets that each have their own dynamics, with some growing faster and others slower. There are micro-level factors that can massively accelerate growth such as the requirement in Spain to adopt breakdown beacons, and there are notable macro-level trends which will also have knock on effects on growth, such as populations aging even faster than expected. To forecast the IoT market you need to understand both, and much more besides.”

The report provides a summary of the data within Transforma Insights’ ultra-granular IoT Forecast Database and associated Forecast Insight reports, which together provide application-by-application analysis of the market.

Matt Hatton, Founding Partner at Transforma Insights noted: “Transforma Insights analysts have been forecasting the Internet of Things market opportunity for over a decade. Back in 2011 our analysts’ expectation of 12 billion IoT devices by 2020 was close to the bottom of the league table of predictions but proved to be easily the most accurate. Today as Transforma Insights our team continues to provide the most extensive and deeply researched forecasts of the IoT, making ours the benchmark against which all predictions of IoT market growth should be compared.”

Join us for a webinar on 13th May: On the 13th May 2024 we will run a free webinar delving into many of the most interesting details of the IoT forecasts as discussed in the report. Join our leading IoT experts, Matt Hatton, Jim Morrish and Matt Arnott to learn more. Register here: Webinar – Transforma Insights’ annual global IoT market forecast update

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